Scorecard: 2024 Anime Predictions
How did your predictions go?
It's time to take score of how our Anime Predictions for 2024 did. For each item, we'll give a score between 1 and 10, with 10 being a perfect prediction and 1 being completely off.
The Predictions:
Korean webtoons and web novels will inspire top global hit anime.
Anime-infused “sludge” content will take off.
The creator economy and anime will finally start to converge.
Even less people will be involved in the production of anime in Japan.
The notorious “three years’ lead time” will extend to four years for starting anime productions.
Artificial intelligence will find a place as an augment to human creativity in anime production.
Anime powered entirely by AI will fail.
A notable J-pop artist will incorporate AI-augmented anime visuals into a music video.
Korean webtoons and web novels will inspire top global hit anime. 10/10 - Solo Leveling was one of 2024's smash hits, but on top of that, we're hearing about numerous hot webtoons getting adapted into anime (Naver Webtoon, Kakao Webtoon, and more). Webtoons as a source of IP continue to get bigger.
Anime-infused “sludge” content will take off. 1/10 - Sludge as a phenomenon didn't cross over to anime as predicted and instead was dominated by video games and Western cartoons. If sludge doesn't completely die off, maybe next year anime fans will give it a try!
The creator economy and anime will finally start to converge. 4/10 - While anime wasn't quite ready to embrace official UGC in 2024, there are things happening behind the scenes for 2025 that don't make this prediction a total bust.
Even less people will be involved in the production of anime in Japan. 6/10 - The impact of the invoice system didn't drastically reduce the 2024 supply of people working in anime (likely because policy change may be coming and people are holding out), but its effects were felt. Further, NAFCA's successful Kickstarter gives a positive signal on the certification/training side. This gloomy portent won't be one of our 2025 predictions as we are as optimistic as ever for the future of anime!
The notorious “three years’ lead time” will extend to four years for starting anime productions. 10/10 - Holding true for the top top studios. This one was kind of a gimme!
Artificial intelligence will find a place as an augment to human creativity in anime production. 5/10 - Startups like iKHOR and Parhelion and big Japanese tech firms alike are all trying to find ways to work with animators in the production of anime. This 5/10 represents an "in progress" score and may eventually become either a 1/10 or 10/10 in the future based on how things go.
Anime powered entirely by AI will fail. 10/10 - While there are initial promising results on the augmentation of human creativity, "AI anime" has thus far failed in 2024 and rather spectacularly. Between Wafu and Who Said Death Is Beautiful? (technically motion capture plus generative AI), the sentiment from fans was extremely negative for how AI was used. On the flip side, there were absurdist anime videos on YouTube such as Hoshizora no shita, boku wa takuhanki ni naru which actually received positive reactions from the Japanese internet for their comedic, self-aware nature (e.g. GenAI to make it a joke, not replace humans).
A notable J-pop artist will incorporate AI-augmented anime visuals into a music video. 7/10 - While not outright anime, ONE OK ROCK utilized generative AI for their VFX in their video, which currently has 2.2M views on YouTube and a positive reception.
Total Score: 53/80
Predictions Scored 5+: 6 out of 8 (75%)
Look for our Anime Predictions for 2025 soon!